爱尔兰财产学论文代写:外汇走势

爱尔兰财产学论文代写:外汇走势

灵活多变的价格货币模型因其解释外汇汇率的有效性和解释能力而在不同的国家进行了不同的研究。首先在研究了尼利与该进行(2002)曾提到,货币模型无法预测汇率。进一步说,在长期的地平线上,而不是短期的地平线上,会看到更好的结果。另一方面,马克91995的研究表明,货币基本面可以在三到四年的水平上预测汇率。几个假设是由马克研究所的平稳性数据,比较数据的年份适当的基准是由浮士德等人的质疑(2001)和点(1999)
考虑到研究的解释之间的关系,土耳其里拉和美国元,同期从1987到2000(civcir)模型成功地监测土耳其里拉的相对价格。基于这项研究,可以说,从长期来看,货币基本面对汇率有影响。进一步的研究结果表明,土耳其里拉在2001危机前比美元升值。
最后,以新加坡为例,对货币汇率的确定进行了研究。研究表明,在这种情况下,货币模型并不十分成功,因为对新加坡美元和1978至1993年间美国美元汇率的变动没有给出解释。因此,该模型的有效性在这个模型中受到质疑。然而,强调指出,如果使用适当的规格和估计方法,货币模型可以成功地使用。

爱尔兰财产学论文代写:外汇走势

The flexible price monetary model has been studied in different dimensions in various countries for its validity and ability to explain foreign exchange movements. Firstly in the studied conducted by Neely & Sarno (2002) it has been mentioned that monetary model is unable to forecast exchange rate. Further it is said that the better results are witnessed in case of long term horizon rather than short term horizon. On the other hand the study by Mark 91995) argued that the exchange rate could be predicted by the monetary fundamentals in three to four year horizon. Several assumptions are made by Mark in this study wherein stationarity of data, appropriate benchmark for comparison and the vintage of data have been questioned by Faust et al (2001) and Killian (1999)
Considering the study for explaining the relationship between the Turkish Lira and US Dollar over the period from 1987 to 2000 (Civcir) the model successfully monitors the relative price of Turkey Lira. Based on this study it can be said that in the long run the monetary fundamentals have an effect on the exchange rate. Further the inference of the study, that the Turkish Lira was over-valued in comparison to the US Dollar before the crisis in the year 2001.
Lastly the study was conducted for the monetary exchange rate determination in case of Singapore (Yong & Ling). The study shows that the monetary model isn’t quite successful in this case as the explanation isn’t provided for the movement of Singapore Dollar and the US Dollar exchange for the period from 1978 to 1993. Thus the validity of this model is questioned in this model. However it was highlighted that the monetary model can be used successfully if the proper specification and estimation method for the variables are used.

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